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George Beel v Will Salter (Sun 14 Jan 2018)

Match won by Will Salter. Result: 6-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for George Beel: 276, level confidence: 17%.
Starting level for Will Salter: 1,946, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing 605% better than George Beel.

Will Salter won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played 56% better than George Beel in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Will Salter was taking it easy by anything up to 51%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 371 and 1,946 without affecting his level.

In this case, Will Salter played at level 639 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Will Salter would normally have been playing at level 946 (based on typical behaviour), George Beel played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 48%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to 0% and George Beel changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes 0% and for George Beel becomes +9.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Finals Junior 2017/18' so the adjustment for Will Salter is 0% and for George Beel is +6.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 86%, George Beel: 41%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 41%, George Beel: 19%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Beel: 295, level confidence: 19%.
Final level for Will Salter: 1,951, level confidence: 41%.