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Lewis Poole v Liam Eason (Sat 13 Jan 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 13-11,12-10,10-12,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Lewis Poole: 7,433, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 10,038, level confidence: 37%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Lewis Poole.

Liam Eason won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 11% better than Lewis Poole in this match.

As Liam Eason has played below his allowed range at 8,822, his level reduction is 7.4% before damping. On the assumption that Liam Eason would normally have been playing at level 9,750 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Poole played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to -6.3% and Lewis Poole changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes -2.3% and for Lewis Poole becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South Glamorgan Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 61%, Lewis Poole: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 55%, Lewis Poole: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Poole: 7,551, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 9,796, level confidence: 55%.