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Matthew Lloyd-Lewis v Dave Davies (Sat 13 Jan 2018)

Match won by Dave Davies. Result: 11-9,6-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Matthew Lloyd-Lewis: 3,261, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Dave Davies: 4,772, level confidence: 35%.
Dave Davies to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Matthew Lloyd-Lewis.

Dave Davies won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Davies played 32% better than Matthew Lloyd-Lewis in this match.

As Dave Davies has played below his allowed range at 4,328, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Dave Davies would normally have been playing at level 4,565 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Lloyd-Lewis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Davies changes to -0.7% and Matthew Lloyd-Lewis changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Davies becomes -0.4% and for Matthew Lloyd-Lewis becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South Glamorgan Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Davies: 59%, Matthew Lloyd-Lewis: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Davies: 56%, Matthew Lloyd-Lewis: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Lloyd-Lewis: 3,291, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Dave Davies: 4,744, level confidence: 56%.