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Dave Davies v Liam Eason (Sat 13 Jan 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 0-11,0-11,2-11.

Starting level for Dave Davies: 5,018, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,784, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Dave Davies.

Liam Eason won all of the games and 94% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 1000% better than Dave Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Eason actually played at a level of 23,239 and Dave Davies at a level of 2,113. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 138% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 86% and 86% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to +74% and Dave Davies changes to -86%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes +15.8% and for Dave Davies becomes -21%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South Glamorgan Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Eason is limited to +8.1% and Dave Davies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 89%, Dave Davies: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 38%, Dave Davies: 35%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Davies: 4,772, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 10,556, level confidence: 38%.