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Sarah-Jane Perry v Tesni Murphy (Tue 09 Jan 2018)

Match won by Sarah-Jane Perry. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 9,646, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,984, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Sarah-Jane Perry to win as she is currently playing 7% better than Tesni Murphy.

Sarah-Jane Perry won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah-Jane Perry played 29% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sarah-Jane Perry actually played at a level of 10,584 and Tesni Murphy at a level of 8,188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +8.4% and Tesni Murphy changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes +2.8% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Masters' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah-Jane Perry: 90%, Tesni Murphy: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah-Jane Perry: 82%, Tesni Murphy: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 9,813, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,751, level confidence: 77%.