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Will Salter v Howard John (Wed 10 Jan 2018)

Match won by Will Salter. Result: 15-4,11-15,12-15,15-8,15-11.

Starting level for Will Salter: 1,888, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Howard John: 1,612, level confidence: 66%.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Howard John.

Will Salter won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played 15% better than Howard John in this match.

As Will Salter has played below his allowed range at 1,853, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that Will Salter would normally have been playing at level 1,875 (based on typical behaviour), Howard John played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to 0% and Howard John changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes -0.2% and for Howard John becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Will Salter is 0% and for Howard John is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 78%, Howard John: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 77%, Howard John: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Will Salter: 1,882, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Howard John: 1,616, level confidence: 80%.