Kieran Hillman v Liam Eason (Thu 11 Jan 2018)
Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 6-11,6-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Kieran Hillman:
5,240, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Liam Eason:
9,889, level confidence: 67%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing
89% better than Kieran Hillman.
Liam Eason won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played
83% better than Kieran Hillman in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Liam Eason was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,702 and 9,889 without affecting his level.
In this case, Liam Eason played at level 9,607 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Kieran Hillman is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 82%, Kieran Hillman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 80%, Kieran Hillman: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Kieran Hillman:
5,232, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Liam Eason:
9,874, level confidence: 80%.