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Hari Major v Joe Edwards (Tue 09 Jan 2018)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,312, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Joe Edwards: 5,004, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Joe Edwards.

Hari Major won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 28% better than Joe Edwards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 5,835 and Joe Edwards at a level of 4,555. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +9.5% and Joe Edwards changes to -7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +3.6% and for Joe Edwards becomes -3%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Joe Edwards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +2.6% and for Joe Edwards is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 76%, Joe Edwards: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 69%, Joe Edwards: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 5,444, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Joe Edwards: 4,887, level confidence: 78%.