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Haris Qasim v Srikar Mummidi (Sat 06 Jan 2018)

Match won by Haris Qasim. Result: 2-11,11-4,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Haris Qasim: 5,893, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,760, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Haris Qasim.

Haris Qasim won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Haris Qasim played 19% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Haris Qasim actually played at a level of 6,878 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 5,792. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Haris Qasim changes to +14% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Haris Qasim becomes +4.6% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Srikar Mummidi has already dropped 6.3% since starting this event at level 7184. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Srikar Mummidi's drop for this match has been limited to 5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Haris Qasim: 91%, Srikar Mummidi: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Haris Qasim: 78%, Srikar Mummidi: 74%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Haris Qasim: 6,174, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,612, level confidence: 74%.