Srikar Mummidi v Alfie Lawes (Fri 05 Jan 2018)
Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-7,6-11,12-10,8-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Srikar Mummidi:
6,860, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alfie Lawes:
4,824, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Alfie Lawes.
Srikar Mummidi won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played
9% better than Alfie Lawes in this match.
As Srikar Mummidi has played below his allowed range at 5,783, his level reduction is 9.8% before damping. On the assumption that Srikar Mummidi would normally have been playing at level 6,600 (based on typical behaviour), Alfie Lawes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 9.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to -8.2% and Alfie Lawes changes to +9.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes -3% and for Alfie Lawes becomes +3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 85%, Alfie Lawes: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 75%, Alfie Lawes: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi:
6,766, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Alfie Lawes:
5,007, level confidence: 76%.