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Simon Herbert v Srikar Mummidi (Wed 03 Jan 2018)

Match won by Simon Herbert. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Simon Herbert: 7,733, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,986, level confidence: 67%.
Simon Herbert to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Simon Herbert won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Herbert played 55% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Herbert actually played at a level of 9,142 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 5,909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Herbert changes to +17% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Herbert becomes +5% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Herbert: 83%, Srikar Mummidi: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Herbert: 70%, Srikar Mummidi: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Herbert: 8,143, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,670, level confidence: 69%.