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Srikar Mummidi v Nathan Mead (Wed 03 Jan 2018)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 4-11,8-11,11-5,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 7,265, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Mead: 3,871, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Nathan Mead.

Srikar Mummidi won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 9% better than Nathan Mead in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Srikar Mummidi was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,839 and 7,265 without affecting his level.

As Srikar Mummidi has played below his allowed range at 4,970, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Srikar Mummidi would normally have been playing at level 6,513 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Mead played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to -12% and Nathan Mead changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes -4.1% and for Nathan Mead becomes +6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 88%, Nathan Mead: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 67%, Nathan Mead: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,980, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Nathan Mead: 4,100, level confidence: 68%.