Srikar Mummidi v Gavin L'Estrange (Sat 09 Dec 2017)
Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-9,11-1,11-9.
Starting level for
Srikar Mummidi:
6,893, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Gavin L'Estrange:
5,294, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Gavin L'Estrange.
Srikar Mummidi won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played
74% better than Gavin L'Estrange in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of
7,961 and Gavin L'Estrange at a level of
4,584. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +13% and Gavin L'Estrange changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +4.3% and for Gavin L'Estrange becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss Ch Spiele Junior Open 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 88%, Gavin L'Estrange: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 76%, Gavin L'Estrange: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi:
7,209, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Gavin L'Estrange:
5,097, level confidence: 82%.