Srikar Mummidi v Nicholas Johnson (Thu 14 Dec 2017)
Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-6,11-8,9-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Srikar Mummidi:
7,295, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nicholas Johnson:
5,408, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Nicholas Johnson.
Srikar Mummidi won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played
24% better than Nicholas Johnson in this match.
As Srikar Mummidi has played below his allowed range at 6,779, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Srikar Mummidi would normally have been playing at level 7,087 (based on typical behaviour), Nicholas Johnson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 2.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to -0.7% and Nicholas Johnson changes to +2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes -0.4% and for Nicholas Johnson becomes +1.3%.
Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change.
Given Nicholas Johnson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi is 0% and for Nicholas Johnson is +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 87%, Nicholas Johnson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 83%, Nicholas Johnson: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi:
7,265, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nicholas Johnson:
5,453, level confidence: 83%.