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Ali Farag v Cameron Pilley (Thu 14 Dec 2017)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 58,768, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 43,569, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Cameron Pilley.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 175% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 83,912 and Cameron Pilley at a level of 30,514. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +34% and Cameron Pilley changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +5.9% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ali Farag is limited to +4.7% and Cameron Pilley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 93%, Cameron Pilley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 65%, Cameron Pilley: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 61,548, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 41,509, level confidence: 63%.