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Tesni Murphy v Nadine Shahin (Wed 13 Dec 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,910, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nadine Shahin: 6,916, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 29% better than Nadine Shahin.

Tesni Murphy won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 37% better than Nadine Shahin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 9,190 and Nadine Shahin at a level of 6,705. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +2.8% and Nadine Shahin changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +1.4% and for Nadine Shahin becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 88%, Nadine Shahin: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 85%, Nadine Shahin: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,879, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Nadine Shahin: 6,892, level confidence: 89%.