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Cameron Pilley v Karim Ali Fathi (Wed 13 Dec 2017)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 42,863, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 33,349, level confidence: 60%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 47% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 45,883 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 31,154. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +4.8% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +1.5% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 88%, Karim Ali Fathi: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 82%, Karim Ali Fathi: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 43,405, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 32,945, level confidence: 72%.