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Vikram Malhotra v Charlie Lee (Sun 10 Dec 2017)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-8,11-5,13-11.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 29,553, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Charlie Lee: 25,739, level confidence: 51%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Charlie Lee.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 49% better than Charlie Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of 33,650 and Charlie Lee at a level of 22,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +9.4% and Charlie Lee changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +2.4% and for Charlie Lee becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 83%, Charlie Lee: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 73%, Charlie Lee: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,141, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Charlie Lee: 25,047, level confidence: 62%.