Lewis Doughty v David Haley (Tue 05 Dec 2017)
Match won by Lewis Doughty. Result: 9-11,11-2,11-6,11-2.
Starting level for
Lewis Doughty:
10,968, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Haley:
12,757, level confidence: 56%.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Lewis Doughty.
Lewis Doughty won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Doughty played
50% better than David Haley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Doughty actually played at a level of
14,475 and David Haley at a level of
9,666. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Doughty changes to +21% and David Haley changes to -29%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Doughty becomes +5.5% and for David Haley becomes -7.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Haley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Doughty: 89%, David Haley: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Doughty: 67%, David Haley: 57%.
Final level for Lewis Doughty:
11,573, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for David Haley:
12,150, level confidence: 57%.