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David Haley v Peter Creed (Thu 14 Dec 2017)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 7-11,3-11,9-11.

Starting level for David Haley: 12,150, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,264, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 133% better than David Haley.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 74% better than David Haley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,823 and 28,264 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 22,313 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 23,592 (based on typical behaviour), David Haley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and David Haley changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for David Haley becomes +1.6%.

Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is 0% and for David Haley is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 91%, David Haley: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 79%, David Haley: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Haley: 12,250, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 28,222, level confidence: 79%.