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Lewis Anderson v Srikar Mummidi (Fri 27 Oct 2017)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-7,11-7,15-13.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 7,529, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,241, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 43% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of 8,196 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 5,733. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +8% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +2.9% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 80%, Srikar Mummidi: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 74%, Srikar Mummidi: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 7,766, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,131, level confidence: 79%.