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Harry Barron v Srikar Mummidi (Fri 27 Oct 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-5,2-11,8-11,3-11.

Starting level for Harry Barron: 3,110, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,345, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Harry Barron.

Srikar Mummidi won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 36% better than Harry Barron in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Srikar Mummidi was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,811 and 6,345 without affecting his level.

As Srikar Mummidi has played below his allowed range at 4,511, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Srikar Mummidi would normally have been playing at level 5,525 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Barron played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to -3.9% and Harry Barron changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes -1.9% and for Harry Barron becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 91%, Harry Barron: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 74%, Harry Barron: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Barron: 3,249, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,241, level confidence: 74%.