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Dave Davies v Brian Evans (Tue 12 Dec 2017)

Match won by Dave Davies. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Dave Davies: 4,971, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Brian Evans: 1,621, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Dave Davies to win as he is currently playing 207% better than Brian Evans.

Dave Davies won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Davies played 230% better than Brian Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Davies actually played at a level of 5,157 and Brian Evans at a level of 1,563. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Davies changes to +2.1% and Brian Evans changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Davies becomes +1.2% and for Brian Evans becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Dave Davies is +0.9% and for Brian Evans is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Davies: 83%, Brian Evans: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Davies: 80%, Brian Evans: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Davies: 5,010, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Brian Evans: 1,600, level confidence: 85%.