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Hari Major v Lee Washburn (Thu 07 Dec 2017)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 8-11,10-12,11-6,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,307, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lee Washburn: 5,104, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Lee Washburn.

Hari Major won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 13% better than Lee Washburn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 5,529 and Lee Washburn at a level of 4,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +3.2% and Lee Washburn changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +1.8% and for Lee Washburn becomes -2.1%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lee Washburn's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +1.3% and for Lee Washburn is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 95%, Lee Washburn: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 91%, Lee Washburn: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 5,369, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Lee Washburn: 5,018, level confidence: 81%.