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Tom Goulden v Hari Major (Thu 23 Nov 2017)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 6-11,8-11,6-11.

Starting level for Tom Goulden: 3,356, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Hari Major: 5,072, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Tom Goulden.

Hari Major won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 65% better than Tom Goulden in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 5,300 and Tom Goulden at a level of 3,212. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +3.3% and Tom Goulden changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +1.8% and for Tom Goulden becomes -2.2%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +1.4% and for Tom Goulden is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 88%, Tom Goulden: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 84%, Tom Goulden: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Goulden: 3,297, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Hari Major: 5,134, level confidence: 84%.