Matthew Murphy v Dave Davies (Thu 07 Dec 2017)
Match won by Dave Davies. Result: 13-15,9-11,14-16.
Starting level for
Matthew Murphy:
2,834, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Dave Davies:
5,059, level confidence: 68%.
Dave Davies to win as he is currently playing
79% better than Matthew Murphy.
Dave Davies won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Davies played
29% better than Matthew Murphy in this match.
As Dave Davies has played below his allowed range at 3,876, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Dave Davies would normally have been playing at level 4,607 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 8.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Davies changes to -4.3% and Matthew Murphy changes to +8.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Davies becomes -2.1% and for Matthew Murphy becomes +3.8%.
Given Dave Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Dave Davies is -1.6% and for Matthew Murphy is +2.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Davies: 82%, Matthew Murphy: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Davies: 70%, Matthew Murphy: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Matthew Murphy:
2,911, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Dave Davies:
4,972, level confidence: 70%.