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Liam Eason v David Evans (Thu 07 Dec 2017)

Match won by David Evans. Result: 5-11,11-13,5-11.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,741, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Evans: 21,045, level confidence: 50%.
David Evans to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Liam Eason.

David Evans won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Evans played 67% better than Liam Eason in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,811 and 21,045 without affecting his level.

In this case, David Evans played at level 17,096 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Evans would normally have been playing at level 18,003 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Eason played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Evans changes to 0% and Liam Eason changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Evans becomes 0% and for Liam Eason becomes +1.2%.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for David Evans is 0% and for Liam Eason is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Evans: 71%, Liam Eason: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Evans: 62%, Liam Eason: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 9,799, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for David Evans: 21,013, level confidence: 62%.