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Arnaud Marotin v Nick Dyer (Thu 07 Dec 2017)

Match won by Arnaud Marotin. Result: 11-8,11-7,7-11,12-10.

Starting level for Arnaud Marotin: 3,985, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Nick Dyer: 5,841, level confidence: 58%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Arnaud Marotin.

Arnaud Marotin won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Marotin played 21% better than Nick Dyer in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arnaud Marotin actually played at a level of 5,314 and Nick Dyer at a level of 4,380. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Marotin changes to +27% and Nick Dyer changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Marotin becomes +8.7% and for Nick Dyer becomes -7.1%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Arnaud Marotin is +6.5% and for Nick Dyer is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Marotin: 72%, Nick Dyer: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Marotin: 54%, Nick Dyer: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arnaud Marotin: 4,239, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,555, level confidence: 57%.