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Simon Dutton v Hari Major (Tue 05 Dec 2017)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 11-7,5-11,5-11,10-12.

Starting level for Simon Dutton: 4,360, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hari Major: 5,204, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Simon Dutton.

Hari Major won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 27% better than Simon Dutton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 5,376 and Simon Dutton at a level of 4,220. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +2.8% and Simon Dutton changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +1.6% and for Simon Dutton becomes -1.8%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +1.2% and for Simon Dutton is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 93%, Simon Dutton: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 90%, Simon Dutton: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Dutton: 4,295, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Hari Major: 5,258, level confidence: 90%.