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Tesni Murphy v Lewis Poole (Thu 30 Nov 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,452, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Poole: 7,438, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 14% better than Lewis Poole.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 52% better than Lewis Poole in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 9,764 and Lewis Poole at a level of 6,439. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +14% and Lewis Poole changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +4.4% and for Lewis Poole becomes -4.2%.

Given Tesni Murphy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to her level change.

Given Lewis Poole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Tesni Murphy is +2.9% and for Lewis Poole is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 91%, Lewis Poole: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 78%, Lewis Poole: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,685, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Lewis Poole: 7,278, level confidence: 82%.