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Srikar Mummidi v Elliott Morris Devred (Thu 30 Nov 2017)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 5-11,11-8,7-11,6-11.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,551, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 13,320, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Elliott Morris Devred won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 30% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,780 and 13,320 without affecting his level.

As Elliott Morris Devred has played below his allowed range at 9,140, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Elliott Morris Devred would normally have been playing at level 11,611 (based on typical behaviour), Srikar Mummidi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to -4.3% and Srikar Mummidi changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -1.7% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes +3.8%.

Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is -1% and for Srikar Mummidi is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 87%, Srikar Mummidi: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 70%, Srikar Mummidi: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,719, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 13,166, level confidence: 70%.