Andrew Douglas v Eric Galvez (Wed 29 Nov 2017)
Match won by Andrew Douglas. Result: 11-9,9-11,11-7,7-11,15-13.
Starting level for
Andrew Douglas:
18,432, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Eric Galvez:
24,500, level confidence: 64%.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing
33% better than Andrew Douglas.
Andrew Douglas won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Douglas played
8% better than Eric Galvez in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Douglas actually played at a level of
22,133 and Eric Galvez at a level of
20,403. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Douglas changes to +17% and Eric Galvez changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Douglas becomes +4.2% and for Eric Galvez becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Douglas: 70%, Eric Galvez: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Douglas: 58%, Eric Galvez: 67%.
Final level for Andrew Douglas:
19,214, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Eric Galvez:
23,747, level confidence: 67%.