Owain Taylor v David Haley (Tue 21 Nov 2017)
Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 7-11,11-8,12-14,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Owain Taylor:
15,971, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Haley:
11,804, level confidence: 65%.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing
35% better than David Haley.
Owain Taylor won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played
12% better than David Haley in this match.
As Owain Taylor has played below his allowed range at 14,112, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Owain Taylor would normally have been playing at level 15,508 (based on typical behaviour), David Haley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owain Taylor changes to -4.6% and David Haley changes to +7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owain Taylor becomes -1.7% and for David Haley becomes +2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 90%, David Haley: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 82%, David Haley: 74%.
Final level for Owain Taylor:
15,701, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for David Haley:
12,086, level confidence: 74%.