Eric Galvez v Mario Yanez (Thu 16 Nov 2017)
Match won by Eric Galvez. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Eric Galvez:
25,142, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Mario Yanez:
14,943, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing
68% better than Mario Yanez.
Eric Galvez won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eric Galvez played
47% better than Mario Yanez in this match.
In this case, Eric Galvez played at level 22,636 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Eric Galvez would normally have been playing at level 23,283 (based on typical behaviour), Mario Yanez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eric Galvez changes to 0% and Mario Yanez changes to +2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eric Galvez becomes 0% and for Mario Yanez becomes +0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Saskatoon Boast Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eric Galvez: 83%, Mario Yanez: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eric Galvez: 78%, Mario Yanez: 80%.
Final level for Eric Galvez:
25,142, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Mario Yanez:
15,083, level confidence: 80%.