Cameron Pilley v Campbell Grayson (Wed 15 Nov 2017)
Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
45,642, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
35,710, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Campbell Grayson.
Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played
65% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of
51,858 and Campbell Grayson at a level of
31,429. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +12% and Campbell Grayson changes to -8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +2.7% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 81%, Campbell Grayson: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 71%, Campbell Grayson: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
46,573, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
35,033, level confidence: 83%.