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Adrain Waller v Reiko Peter (Sun 12 Nov 2017)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 9-11,14-12,11-1.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 38,104, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Reiko Peter: 26,339, level confidence: 61%.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Reiko Peter.

Adrain Waller won 67% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 31% better than Reiko Peter in this match.

As Adrain Waller has played below his allowed range at 34,747, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Adrain Waller would normally have been playing at level 36,537 (based on typical behaviour), Reiko Peter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 2.5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to -0.4% and Reiko Peter changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes -0.1% and for Reiko Peter becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 93%, Reiko Peter: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 89%, Reiko Peter: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 37,894, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Reiko Peter: 26,626, level confidence: 74%.