Adrian Waller v Matias Tuomi (Fri 10 Nov 2017)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-3.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
37,912, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matias Tuomi:
16,258, level confidence: 68%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
133% better than Matias Tuomi.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
136% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of
38,117 and Matias Tuomi at a level of
16,171. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +0.3% and Matias Tuomi changes to -0.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +0.1% and for Matias Tuomi becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 88%, Matias Tuomi: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 88%, Matias Tuomi: 82%.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
37,957, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi:
16,232, level confidence: 82%.