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Cameron Pilley v Peter Creed (Wed 08 Nov 2017)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 10-12,11-9,11-7,5-11,11-5.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 43,334, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,832, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Peter Creed.

Cameron Pilley won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 10% better than Peter Creed in this match.

As Cameron Pilley has played below his allowed range at 33,432, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Cameron Pilley would normally have been playing at level 40,551 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to -9.7% and Peter Creed changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes -2.4% and for Peter Creed becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 88%, Peter Creed: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 73%, Peter Creed: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 42,763, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,698, level confidence: 70%.