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Cameron Pilley v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 08 Nov 2017)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 42,142, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 17,529, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 140% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 230% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 49,373 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of 14,962. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 10.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +10.8% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +2.5% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 91%, Ondrej Uherka: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 78%, Ondrej Uherka: 81%.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 43,213, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 17,052, level confidence: 81%.