Cameron Pilley v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 08 Nov 2017)
Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
42,142, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ondrej Uherka:
17,529, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing
140% better than Ondrej Uherka.
Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played
230% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of
49,373 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of
14,962. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 10.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +10.8% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -9.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +2.5% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 91%, Ondrej Uherka: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 78%, Ondrej Uherka: 81%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
43,213, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka:
17,052, level confidence: 81%.