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Raphael Kandra v Lewis Walters (Sun 05 Nov 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 12-10,11-3,7-11,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 38,156, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Lewis Walters: 16,042, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Lewis Walters.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 29% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,177 and 38,156 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 23,261, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 31,604 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Walters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -8% and Lewis Walters changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.1% and for Lewis Walters becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 81%, Lewis Walters: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 60%, Lewis Walters: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 37,763, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Lewis Walters: 16,590, level confidence: 64%.