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Steve Williams v Matt O'Conner (Thu 30 Nov 2017)

Match won by Matt O'Conner. Result: 11-13,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Steve Williams: 5,111, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt O'Conner: 5,740, level confidence: 65%.
Matt O'Conner to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Steve Williams.

Matt O'Conner won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt O'Conner played 38% better than Steve Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt O'Conner actually played at a level of 6,363 and Steve Williams at a level of 4,611. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner changes to +10.2% and Steve Williams changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner becomes +3.7% and for Steve Williams becomes -3.5%.

Given Matt O'Conner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.1% has been applied to his level change.

Given Steve Williams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Matt O'Conner is +2.7% and for Steve Williams is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt O'Conner: 81%, Steve Williams: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt O'Conner: 73%, Steve Williams: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Williams: 4,975, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Matt O'Conner: 5,884, level confidence: 73%.