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Nick Dyer v Ross Cassley (Thu 30 Nov 2017)

Match won by Ross Cassley. Result: 9-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,066, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Ross Cassley: 4,815, level confidence: 66%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Ross Cassley.

Ross Cassley won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Cassley played 52% better than Nick Dyer in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ross Cassley actually played at a level of 6,655 and Nick Dyer at a level of 4,389. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Cassley changes to +33% and Nick Dyer changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Cassley becomes +9.9% and for Nick Dyer becomes -9%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Ross Cassley is +7.4% and for Nick Dyer is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Dyer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Cassley: 81%, Nick Dyer: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Cassley: 59%, Nick Dyer: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,768, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Ross Cassley: 5,165, level confidence: 59%.