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Hari Major v Jack Hayes (Tue 28 Nov 2017)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,093, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jack Hayes: 3,558, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Jack Hayes.

Hari Major won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 52% better than Jack Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 5,242 and Jack Hayes at a level of 3,457. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +2.1% and Jack Hayes changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +1.2% and for Jack Hayes becomes -1.6%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +0.9% and for Jack Hayes is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 91%, Jack Hayes: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 88%, Jack Hayes: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 5,133, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Jack Hayes: 3,512, level confidence: 82%.