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Joel Preece v Nick Dyer (Mon 20 Nov 2017)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 10-12,13-11,11-8,11-13,10-12.

Starting level for Joel Preece: 5,046, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,244, level confidence: 57%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Joel Preece.

Nick Dyer won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 8% better than Joel Preece in this match.

As Nick Dyer has played below his allowed range at 5,735, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Dyer would normally have been playing at level 6,152 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Preece played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to -4.7% and Joel Preece changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes -2.2% and for Joel Preece becomes +2%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change.

Given Joel Preece's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nick Dyer is -1.5% and for Joel Preece is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 75%, Joel Preece: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 70%, Joel Preece: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Preece: 5,115, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Nick Dyer: 6,140, level confidence: 70%.