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Greg Tippings v Srikar Mummidi (Thu 23 Nov 2017)

Match won by Greg Tippings. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Tippings: 9,931, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,827, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Greg Tippings to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Greg Tippings won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Tippings played 136% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Tippings actually played at a level of 12,642 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 5,363. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Tippings changes to +22% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Tippings becomes +5.9% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -5.8%.

Given Greg Tippings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Greg Tippings is +3.8% and for Srikar Mummidi is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Tippings: 83%, Srikar Mummidi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Tippings: 65%, Srikar Mummidi: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Tippings: 10,293, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,556, level confidence: 69%.