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Joel Makin v Guy Pearson (Mon 20 Nov 2017)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 37,226, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Guy Pearson: 13,903, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Guy Pearson.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 74% better than Guy Pearson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,059 and 37,226 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 26,690 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 29,501 (based on typical behaviour), Guy Pearson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Guy Pearson changes to +6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Guy Pearson becomes +2.1%.

Given Guy Pearson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is 0% and for Guy Pearson is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 85%, Guy Pearson: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 68%, Guy Pearson: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 37,319, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Guy Pearson: 14,114, level confidence: 68%.