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Jethro D Binns v David Haley (Thu 16 Nov 2017)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 11-7,7-11,12-10,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,675, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Haley: 10,540, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Jethro D Binns.

David Haley won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 10% better than Jethro D Binns in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of 10,604 and Jethro D Binns at a level of 9,616. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +0.6% and Jethro D Binns changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +0.3% and for Jethro D Binns becomes 0%.

Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for David Haley is 0% and for Jethro D Binns is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 84%, Jethro D Binns: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 84%, Jethro D Binns: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jethro D Binns: 9,644, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for David Haley: 10,543, level confidence: 84%.