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Laura Massaro v Tesni Murphy (Fri 17 Nov 2017)

Match won by Laura Massaro. Result: 4-11,11-8,13-11,11-6.

Starting level for Laura Massaro: 10,308, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,377, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Laura Massaro to win as she is currently playing 23% better than Tesni Murphy.

Laura Massaro won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laura Massaro played 20% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

As Laura Massaro has played below her allowed range at 10,017, her level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Laura Massaro would normally have been playing at level 10,165 (based on typical behaviour), Tesni Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laura Massaro changes to 0% and Tesni Murphy changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laura Massaro becomes -0% and for Tesni Murphy becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laura Massaro: 94%, Tesni Murphy: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laura Massaro: 92%, Tesni Murphy: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Laura Massaro: 10,180, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,466, level confidence: 87%.