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Cameron Pilley v Raphael Kandra (Wed 15 Nov 2017)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 43,806, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 38,039, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Raphael Kandra.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 83% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 55,272 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 30,148. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +24% and Raphael Kandra changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +4.8% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 82%, Raphael Kandra: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 65%, Raphael Kandra: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 45,524, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 36,655, level confidence: 70%.