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Adrain Waller v Joel Makin (Tue 14 Nov 2017)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-4,5-11,11-4.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 37,894, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 38,689, level confidence: 65%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Adrain Waller.

Adrain Waller won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 14% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 40,807 and Joel Makin at a level of 35,927. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +5.7% and Joel Makin changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +1.7% and for Joel Makin becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 93%, Joel Makin: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 86%, Joel Makin: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 38,431, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 37,936, level confidence: 75%.